Guide: The results of the bidding subsidy project that allowed the photovoltaic industry to wait for the first half of 2019, finally found the answer in a paper notice issued by the National Energy Administration on July 11. According to this notice, including 3,921 PV bidding projects will be short-listed for the 2019 state subsidy, but the final result will be based on the full capacity built into the grid. This also means that a new round of PV market with the bidding online as the core is on schedule.

The soldiers and horses have not moved, the grain and grass first! 2019 photovoltaic power generation bidding subsidy results released!

According to the Notice of the National Energy Administration on July 11th, the General Secretary of the National Energy Administration announced the announcement of the results of the national subsidy bidding for the 2019 photovoltaic power generation project, which involved 3,921 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) with an installed capacity of 22.79 million kilowatts. For photovoltaic projects, the estimated annual subsidy demand is about 1.7 billion yuan. The number of ordinary photovoltaic power plants, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects is 366, 3555, and the installed capacity is 18,132,316 kilowatts and 4,465,326 kilowatts. The details are as follows:

But this is not a final decision. In the end, whether it can be included in the scope of state subsidies will be based on the “Notice of the National Energy Administration’s Comprehensive Department on the Announcement of the Results of the National Subsidy Auction for Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects for 2019”. For those connected to the grid with overdue capacity, the subsidy for grid-connected electricity price will be reduced by 0.01 yuan/kWh for each quarter of the overdue period; if the grid connection has not been completed within two quarters after the quarter of the declaration, the project subsidy will be cancelled.

In terms of distribution area, Guizhou ranked first with a total installed capacity of 3,609,963 kilowatts, followed by Shanxi and Zhejiang, with 307.1006 and 2,464,142 kilowatts respectively.

In terms of project types, ordinary photovoltaic power plants, which account for 78.6% of the total declared capacity, are mainly distributed in the central and western regions. As shown in the figure below, the top five regions of ordinary PV power plant projects are Guizhou (55), Shanxi (49), Shaanxi (35), Guangdong (28), and Jiangxi (27). The distributed photovoltaic projects accounting for 21.4% of the total installed capacity are distributed in the eastern coastal areas, of which the proportion of full-line distributed projects is 2.6%, and the self-sufficient and self-use distributed projects are 18.8%.

The National Renewable Energy Information Management Center pointed out in this briefing that the project to be included in the national subsidy bidding scope is only part of the scale of the national photovoltaic power generation construction this year. According to public information, the photovoltaic power generation project that has been included in the scope of the national bidding subsidy has actually had a grid-connected project capacity of nearly 900,000 kilowatts, while the new project capacity is more than twice this value. According to the National Energy Administration's prediction of the scale of photovoltaic power generation in 2019, the scale of construction of photovoltaic power generation projects will exceed 50 GW this year. It is estimated that the installed capacity of grid-connected power plants will be around 43.57 GW during the year.

As the photovoltaic power generation subsidy bid is finalized, the development path of the photovoltaic industry during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period is becoming clearer. One of the more obvious features is that whether it is a centralized ground power station or distributed photovoltaic, the market orientation is more clear in the second half of 2019, and the subsidy signal is more clear. From the perspective of the investment cost of the photovoltaic power station system, the average cost of system investment will fall to 5.68 yuan/W in the next three years from 7.39 yuan/W. But the pain brought about by the transformation is also inevitable, and the industry competition will be more intense. After 2020, the electricity reform began to see results. Photovoltaic power generation has returned to a higher installed level in some competitive markets. However, due to the demand of the power market, the PV market will be in a relatively stable development. Under the guidance of macroeconomic policies, PV will shift from “parity” to “new price”, which means that the overall industrial chain tends to scale, fight speed, fight price, turn to quality, fight technology, and transform benefits.