In the second quarter, domestic paper consumption was sluggish, and the overall price showed a downward trend. In particular, the decline in May and June was significantly accelerated. The average price of household paper in China was 6,677 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from the previous month. During the month of June, the domestic paper market was tepid, and the downstream purchases were more on demand. I did not expect that on June 29, the G20 summit between China and the United States will restart trade negotiations, and the United States will no longer increase the tariffs to become the market's strong-hearted needle. The futures market has also been slightly uplifted. Since the third quarter, pulp futures have continued to show an upward trend. At the same time, most pulp mills have maintenance plans, but it is still unclear. The supply side may be tightened, and paper mills and dealers are in low inventory. Under pressure, there may be replenishment operations. Under the stimulation of multiple favorable factors, the spot market has set off a small wave, and the price of paper is dark and clear. Among them, Hebei paper manufacturers are highly sensitive and strive to be the market leader, and the first shot of domestic paper prices will rise! Most paper companies rose by 100 yuan / ton!

1. A number of overseas pulp mills stopped production and production capacity continued, and wood pulp production capacity continued to tighten

On July 5, Elim announced that its two plants in Siberia (Bratsk and Ust-Ilimsk) had planned shutdowns from June to October 2019, with an estimated 165,000 tons of bleached softwood pulp.

Recently, a number of overseas pulp mills announced a shutdown to reduce production. Canfor Pulp will reduce production of NBSK and BCTMP by about 100,000 tons from the end of June to August. According to Fastmarkets RISI, the Puma pulp mill of Klabin, a Brazilian pulp and paper company, also started maintenance on July 1. It is expected to reduce production by 80,000 tons.

In June, Suzano's Três Lagoas pulp mill in Brazil also underwent a planned shutdown. According to the plan, the plant's Line 1 will be shut down on June 9-19, and Line 2 will be shut down from June 20th to July 5th. The plant's two pulp lines total bleached eucalyptus pulp production capacity of 3.25 million tons / year.

Second, 14 household paper and paper enterprises successively issued price increases

Procter & Gamble Paper: Due to the recent exchange rate, energy and raw materials have risen sharply, resulting in an increase in production costs. Since July 10, the bamboo-based color composite base paper has risen by RMB 100/ton.

Xinjie Paper: Due to the recent sharp increase in exchange rates and raw materials, since July 10, the original shaft and composite shaft of the shotcrete have risen by 100 yuan per ton.

Jifa Paper: Due to the recent sharp increase in raw materials, since July 10, the original shaft, soft pumping, and finished paper prices have been raised by RMB 100/ton.

Ruifeng Paper: Due to the recent exchange rate, energy, raw materials and other factors, since the 7th of July, the original shaft paper and composite shaft paper are raised by 100 yuan per ton.

Lixin Paper Mill: Due to the recent influence of raw materials, the price of original shaft paper and paper has increased by RMB 100/ton since the 7th of July.

Yusen Hygiene Products: Due to the recent sharp increase in raw materials, since July 9, the bamboo pulp natural composite shaft, pure wood pulp composite shaft, and slitting paper have been raised by RMB 100/ton per ton.

Changshan Paper Products: Due to the recent increase in raw material prices, since the 7th of July, the pure wood pulp towel paper has been raised by 100 yuan, and the pure wood pulp and toilet paper has been raised by 100 yuan.

Jiahe Hygiene Products: Due to the recent increase in raw material prices, the delivery price of sprayed half-wood original shaft has been raised by 100 yuan per ton since July 8.

Dr. Jin's Hygiene Products: Since July 6, the shaft for white rolls and the face towel have been uniformly raised by RMB 100/ton.

Baoding Jinneng Hygiene Products Co., Ltd.: In view of the current price adjustment of wood pulp raw materials, energy and other auxiliary materials, the price of raw paper, composite shaft and finished paper will be raised by 100 yuan from July 4th.

Tengsheng Paper: Recently affected by the price of wood pulp raw materials and national environmental protection pressure, since July 8th, the price of Qingmu Life Base Paper has been adjusted by RMB 100/ton on the basis of the current price.

Cedar Paper: Due to the recent sharp increase in exchange rates, energy and raw materials, the composite base paper has risen by RMB 100/ton since July 8.

韶能本色分公司: According to the current market situation, the basic paper for daily use of paper on July 15, 2019, the ex-factory price is raised by 200 yuan / ton.

Lida Paper: Due to the rapid increase in sales orders, some products could not be shipped in time. Since July 7, all orders will be shipped in the order of payment, so please arrange the goods in time.

Driven by the macro recovery, the rebound of paper prices is limited, and the market atmosphere is generally improved. In the market outlook, the spot market is still determined according to supply and demand. Xiaobian suggestion (personal opinion) merchants need to maintain a calm and rational mentality, and should not pursue more highs!

In July, the overall paper market continued to maintain the characteristics of the off-season. Because the demand was dull, the industry was waiting for the waiting window, the coated paper continued to be weak, the double-adhesive paper transaction turned weak, the white card traded in general, and the demand for corrugated box-type packaging paper remained weak. Although the household paper has rebounded, the price of the manufacturer has remained stable, but the market has a certain flexible price to compete for shipment.

The pulp spot market fluctuated, and the broadleaf pulp was still at 4,200 yuan/ton. The coniferous pulp rebounded due to the rise in futures, but it was significantly affected by the resistance stagflation at around 4,700 yuan/ton, but the broadleaf and needles were from the early stage. The price is generally consistent and has evolved into a price difference of 400-500 yuan/ton. According to this state, whether the broadleaf pulp will officially rebound in the future will have a direct impact on the paper market. If there is a staged opportunity in the second half of the year, it is estimated that it will rebound from pulp. Fluctuation has become an opportunity, and the price of waste paper has remained weak. It is estimated that there will be a turnaround opportunity after August.